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Threshold & CV Pace Calculator

Estimate threshold pace, Critical Velocity and VO₂max pace from a recent maximal race performance between 800 m and 10 km. See both the central estimate and the range observed among runners with similar performances.

Race time
HoursHR
MinutesMin
SecondsSec
Race distance
Age
years
Estimate type
Estimated training paces3:58/km

18:00 · 5K · 3:36/km · Conservative bounds · 25 years old

  • Threshold

    3:58/km

    Population estimate range3:45–3:58/km

    Estimated pace close to maximal metabolic steady state.

  • Critical Velocity (CV)

    3:45/km

    Population estimate range3:42–3:48/km

    Estimated Critical Velocity pace.

  • VO₂max pace

    3:34/km

    Population estimate range3:34–3:44/km

    Estimated pace associated with the VO₂max range.

How to use it

How to use it

Select a race distance from 800 m to 10 km and enter a recent maximal-effort time and your age. Choose “Conservative bounds” or “Central estimate”. The tool automatically calculates threshold pace, Critical Velocity and VO₂max pace. The uncertainty range shows how estimates may vary among runners with similar performances.

Limits

What you need to know

These are statistical estimates from a race performance, not direct measurements of physiological thresholds. Use a recent maximal effort in representative conditions. The model supports 800 m to 10 km, but reliability varies by performance level: the documented range is approximately a 5K equivalent of 14:00–25:00. Results are not shown outside this range or when estimates violate the physiological order Threshold < CV < VO₂max. The tool does not replace laboratory or race testing.

Related article

Read the related article

Performance & Physiology

Threshold Pace and Critical Velocity: what they are and how to use them

A recent race result can help estimate Threshold pace, Critical Velocity and VO₂max pace. Turning these numbers into suitable pace-based training zones requires understanding what you are calculating, its uncertainty and why results are not guaranteed to be correct.

10 min read
  • threshold pace
  • critical velocity
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Next step

The numbers indicate intensity. Training determines how you use them.

Threshold, Critical Velocity and VO₂max pace represent different intensity and metabolic-demand ranges. When, how much and how you use these intensities depends on your goal, experience and total training volume.

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Method

Methodology & Sources

This tool is based on John J. Davis’s open-source Threshold, Critical Velocity and VO₂max pace model. It uses nonlinear additive quantile regression on approximately 8,600 race performances from 800 m to 10 km. Central estimate uses the model’s medians. Conservative bounds uses a slower threshold estimate and a faster VO₂max pace bound, while CV stays at the median estimate. The documented reliability range is approximately a 5K equivalent of 14:00–25:00 (Riegel k = 1.06). Results are population-level statistical estimates, not laboratory measurements.

Last updated: 1 September 2026